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“从企业的角度来看，‘区块链旅游’阶段已经过去，企业已经超越了(简单地)理解底层技术细节的需要。”
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全文共计2710字，预计阅读时间5分钟
来源 | Dataversity
作者 | Paramita (Guha) Ghosh
译者 | 黄玉叶
编辑 | 蒲蒲
2020年可能是区块链技术在整个行业利基市场获得更高采用率和使用率的一年。诚如2019年那样，中国可能会带头在区块链研究和应用方面进行大量投资。最大的加密货币交易所在中国，今年可能会看到2019年的多云区块链出现一些戏剧性的部署转变。现实是，难以捉摸的技术要在实际应用中得到证明，才能在行业用户中获得更高的采用率。
在2019年初，LimeChain的区块链架构师和联合创始人GeorgeSpasov表示：“2019年，企业延续了2018年的区块链尝试。”根据德勤（Deloitte）2019年全球区块链调查，大约一半的调查受访者表示，该年将“平均花费500万美元或更多”用于区块链项目。然而，受访者也指出，部署问题、安全威胁和监管方面的麻烦将成为技术采用的严重障碍。
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所有这些趋势在2020年给我们带来了什么？《区块链未来》（https：//www.dataversity.net/the-future-of-blockchain/）一文指出，这项技术的未来在于提供一种“有清晰记录支持的防篡改、资产跟踪系统”，这大致暗示了区块链在革新三个核心产业部门——银行、金融服务和保险部门等方面展示出的巨大潜力。
2020年区块链既定趋势和预期改进
- 一些云服务标杆服务商已开始提供区块链即服务。福布斯建议，今年用户希望在不同的云网络上运行他们的区块链业务。
- 云部署和区块链的采用是紧密相连的，因为更高的区块链采用将导致更多的云采用，反之亦然。云计算和区块链供应商在战略合作中互惠互利。
- 云计算的未来：区块链将有它的一天，它提供了关于混合云环境中的区块链的发人深省的讨论。
- 借助来自Azure，AWS和Oracle的许多雄心勃勃的解决方案，区块链在获得主流地位之前仍然需要应对技术成熟度和公众怀疑论。不幸的是，尽管进行了雄心勃勃的投资，但很少有最终企业能够从“去中心化的账本”中获得回报。
- 由于区块链而导致的业务流程中最明显的变化可能会在2020年的保险行业中出现。保险中的区块链技术描述了该技术如何影响核心保险实践，如定价和承保、索赔、托收和后台工作。
- 据普华永道（PWC）的一份报告，到2020年，77%的金融机构可能会将区块链与它们的“生产系统或流程”相结合。
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- 2019年随着全球社交媒体人口达到27.7亿，区块链在2020年的出现将为侵犯隐私、数据控制和内容相关的问题提供解决方案。
- 目前区块链和人工智能、物联网等其他新兴IT技术共存，2020年，区块链专家如何处理互操作性问题值得期待。
区块链的奥卡姆（OCCAM）问题
一年前，区块链奥卡姆（OCCAM）问题指出，经过长达9年的巨额投资、研究努力和头脑风暴，区块链技术专家、金融行业和监管机构还没有为他们最初宣称的金融业务提出“改变游戏规则”的解决方案。
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上面的文章总结了区块链研发的顶级资金，其中包括2017年区块链初创公司获得的10亿美元风投，IBM在区块链物联网解决方案上的投资超过2亿美元，以及金融业每年约17亿美元的支出。麦肯锡最近对金融服务的研究让市场观察人士相信，尽管这些投资价值数十亿美元，但“几乎没有任何技术、商业和战略意义上的用例，也无法大规模交付。”
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那么，目前全球对区块链作为一项革命性技术的看法是什么呢？各大企业已缩减了投资和研究力度，并正以更有针对性的重点进行区块链的研发。数十个用例已经缩小到一个或两个——更多地关注于遵从性、数据标准和网络采用。
该理论认为区块链将彻底改变从“银行和保险到运输和医疗保健”等整个行业壁垒的主要业务流程，但在应用程序方面却落后。概念证明尚不可见，以至于行业领导者和区块链服务商都淡化了他们的期望，现在他们已经准备好接受更加务实的市场观点。服务商必须更诚实地面对这项神奇技术的挑战和局限性，并适当地重新调整他们的商业策略。
2020区块链希望
Gartner将区块链列为2020年十大战略技术之一。根据Ledgerinsights的说法，Gartner预测在未来三年中，“公共区块链”将与“获准区块链”整合。
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2020年，区块链必须超越其POC烙印，并展现出实际的市场适用性。所以这是2020年值得关注的更多区块链趋势：
- 公司将继续探索对所有类型的实物和数字资产进行“加密币化”。
- 由于可扩展性和互操作性是困扰区块链部署的棘手问题，因此到2020年，企业将需要更多的可扩展性和“网络之间的互连接性”。
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2020年预测：分布式分类帐技术将超越概念验证，从而对当前区块链商业化的障碍有了更深入的了解。另一个区块链应用程序的成功之处在于如何使用区块链保护敏感数据存储。Storj.io和Sia.tech技术是两种区块链存储产品，目前有望在市场上大出风头。
2019年由技术壁垒引发的区块链主趋势
- 去年云服务商提供区块链即服务的趋势可能会在今年随着更多服务和工具的发展而上升。
- 随着市场应用仍然在考验和试验中挣扎，区块链专家千金难求。
- 企业必须用更多面向区块链的专业知识对员工进行创新和技能培训，这样他们才能从区块链部署中获得最大的投资回报率。
2020年的区块链：总结
在2018年，大多数区块链供应商不确定市场反馈，因为大多数行业领导者只是在没有积极追求区块链应用程序的情况下就修补了区块链的想法。在2019年，随着云服务提供商开始提供区块链即服务，区块链技术得到了翻新。如果适当利用这一趋势，可以同时提高云和区块链的采用率。
关于2020年区块链，我们引用德勤美国区块链实验室负责人克里斯·布罗德森（ChrisBrodersen）的话，有5个值得关注的趋势：
“从企业的角度来看，‘区块链旅游’阶段已经过去，企业已经超越了(简单地)理解底层技术细节的需要。”
区块链应用案例早已经是市场上有目共睹的说服场景。
原文如下
Blockchain Trends in 2020
2020 is likely the year when blockchain technologies will witness higher adoption rates and usage across industry niches. As announced in 2019, China may lead the way to substantial investment in blockchain research and applications. The largest cryptocurrency exchanges are in China, and this year may see some dramatic deployment shifts from the multi-cloud blockchains of 2019. The reality is that elusive technology has a lot to prove in actual applications before it achieves higher adoption rate among industry users.
At the beginning of 2019, George Spasov, blockchain architect and LimeChain co-founder, commented, “2019 has continued what 2018 started — enterprises experimenting.” According to the Deloitte 2019 Global Blockchain Survey, about half of the survey respondents had stated that “an average of $5 million or more” would be spent on blockchain projects in that year. However, the survey respondents also noted that deployment issues, security threats, and regulatory hassles would be serious barriers to technology adoption.
Where have all those trends brought us in 2020? The Future of Blockchain claims that the future of the technology lies in providing a “tamper-proof, asset-tracking system backed by clear records,” which broadly hints at blockchain’s immense potentials for revolutionizing three core industry sectors: banking, financial services, and insurance sectors.
Established Blockchain Trends and Expected Enhancements in 2020
●Some of the most successful cloud service providers have offered started offering blockchain-as-a-service. This year users expect to run their blockchain operations across different cloud networks, Forbes suggests.
●Cloud deployments and blockchain adoption are closely interlinked, in the sense that higher blockchain adoption will lead to more cloud adoption and vice versa. The cloud and blockchain vendors have mutual gains in strategic partnerships.
●The Future of Cloud Computing: Blockchain Will Have Its Day offers a thought-provoking discussion of blockchain in a hybrid cloud environment.
●With many ambitious solutions from Azure, AWS, and Oracle, blockchain still has technology maturity and public skepticism to deal with before it can achieve mainstream status. Unfortunately, in spite of ambitious investments, very few finial businesses have yet to reap the rewards of a “decentralized ledger.”
●The most visible change in business processes due to blockchain may be observable in the insurance sector in 2020. Blockchain Technology in Insurance describes how this technology can impact core insurance practices such as pricing and underwriting, claims, collections, and back-office work.
●According to a Price Water Cooper (PWC) report, 77 percent of financial institutions are likely to integrate blockchain with their “in-production system or process by 2020.”
●With the global social-media population at 2.77 billion in 2019, the emergence of blockchain in social media in 2020 will provide solutions for problems related to privacy violations, data control, and content.
●With blockchain exposed to other emerging IT technologies such as AI and IoT, it will be interesting to see how the blockchain experts tackle interoperability issues in 2020.
Blockchain’s Occam Problem
A year ago, Blockchain’s Occam Problem commented that after nine long years of huge investments, research efforts, and brainstorming, the blockchain technologists, finance industry, and the regulators are yet to present that “game-changing” solution for the financial businesses that they initially claimed.
The above article provides a summary of the top funds provided for blockchain R &D, which includes VC funding of $1 billion for blockchain startups in 2017, IBM’s investment of over $200 million in a blockchain-powered IoT solution, and the financial industry’s annual expenditure of about 1.7 billion. McKinsey’s recent study of financial services leads the market watcher to believe that in spite of these billion-dollar investments, “hardly any use cases made technological, commercial, and strategic sense or could be delivered at scale.”
So what is the current global perception of blockchain as a revolutionary technology? Major businesses have scaled down their investments and research efforts and are approaching blockchain R & D with a more targeted focus. Tens of use cases have been narrowed down to one or two — with more focus on compliance, data standards, and network adoption.
The theory that suggested blockchain would revolutionize major business processes across industry niches from “banking and insurance to shipping and healthcare,” is lagging behind on the application side. Proof-of-concepts are not yet visible, so much so that industry leaders and blockchain vendors alike have diluted their expectations, and are now ready for a more pragmatic market-view. The vendors have to be more honest about the challenges and limitations of this wonder-technology and suitably re-adjust their commercial strategy.
Hopes for Blockchain in 2020
Gartner has listed blockchain as one of the top ten strategictechnologies for 2020. According to Ledgerinsights, Gartner has predicted that in the next three years, “public blockchains” will integrate with “permissioned blockchains.”
In 2020, blockchain must move beyond its POC stigma and show actual market applicability. So here are more blockchain trends to watch out for in 2020:
●Blockchain vendors will aggressively pursue industry sectors with better services and tools.
●Companies will continue to explore “tokenization” of all types of physical and digital assets.
●The Digital Asset Model Language (DAML) is likely to overthrow existing frameworks.
●As scalability and interoperability are nagging issues for blockchain deployments, in 2020, businesses will demand more scalability and “interconnectivity between networks.”
Predictions 2020: Distributed Ledger Technology Moves Beyond Proof Of Concept gives a deeper understanding of the current barriers to commercialization of blockchain. The success of another blockchain application can be found in How Blockchain Can Be Used to Secure Sensitive Data Storage. Storj.io and Sia.tech are two blockchain storage products currently poised for market success.
Major Blockchain Trends Triggered by Technology Barriers in 2019
●The previous year’s trend of cloud providers offering blockchain as a service may be an uptrend this year with more services and tools.
●The rise of “federated blockchain” with customizable blockchain networks.
●The rise of demand for blockchain experts as market applications continue to struggle through trials and experimentations.
●Businesses will have to innovate and re-skill their staff with more blockchain-oriented expertise, so that they can maximize their ROI from a blockchain deployment.
Blockchain in 2020: Wrapping Up
In 2018, most blockchain vendors were not sure of the market feedback as most industry leaders simply tinkered with the idea of blockchain without actively pursuing blockchain applications. In 2019, blockchain technology got a facelift as cloud service providers started offering blockchain as a service. This trend, if appropriately leveraged, can enhance both cloud and blockchain adoption rates at the same time.
Blockchain in 2020: 5 Trends to Watch quotes Chris Brodersen, Deloitte Americas Blockchain Lab lead, as saying:
“From an enterprise perspective, the ‘blockchain tourism’ phase has passed and companies are beyond [simply] feeling the need to understand the underlying technology details.”
Blockchain Use Cases gives a more convincing picture of blockchain as a market success.
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