格雷厄姆·埃里森（Graham Allison）教授是哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院首任院长，作为现代肯尼迪政府学院的“创始院长“，该学院从1977年至1989年间增长了20倍，从一个不明确的小型项目，成为一所重要的公共政策和政府专业学院。格雷厄姆·埃里森的著作《注定一战：美国和中国能逃避修昔底德陷阱吗？》（Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?）于2017年5月由霍顿米夫林出版公司出版后迅速成为畅销书。
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△ 2018年5月26日，哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院首任院长格雷厄姆·埃里森教授在复旦大学主办的“上海论坛”上发表演讲。
格雷厄姆·埃里森多次到访中国，对中国的发展和崛起有着深入的研究，并一直致力于探讨和解决中美之间如何避免修昔底德陷阱。下面，是格雷厄姆·埃里森教授2018年9月在TED上的演讲视频和双语对照全文，对于美国人眼中的中国崛起究竟是什么样的问题，让我们一起来聆听他的独到见解：
▽ 点击观看视频
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The answer is 43 hours.
答案是43小时。
Now, of course, that couldn't happen in New York.
当然，这种事不可能发生在纽约。
Behind this speed in execution is a purpose-driven leader and a government that works. The most ambitious and most competent leader on the international stage today is Chinese President. And he's made no secret about what he wants. As he said when he became president six years ago, his goal is to make China great again --
在这执行速度的背后是由以目标驱动行动的领导者，和一个干实事的政府。在如今的国际舞台上最有雄心和最有竞争力的领导者。他从不掩饰自己想得到什么。如同他六年前当选时所说。他的目标就是要让中国再次变得伟大—
a banner he raised long before Donald Trump picked up a version of this. To that end, Xi has announced specific targets for specific dates: 2025, 2035, 2049.
这个口号早在特朗普提出类似的话前就已经出现了。那时还宣布了特定日期应完成的特定目标：2025年，2035年，2049年。
By 2025, China means to be the dominant power in the major market in 10 leading technologies, including driverless cars, robots, artificial intelligence, quantum computing. By 2035, China means to be the innovation leader across all the advanced technologies. And by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic, China means to be unambiguously number one, including, an army that he calls "Fight and Win." So these are audacious goals, but as you can see, China is already well on its way to these objectives. And we should remember how fast our world is changing. Thirty years ago, the World Wide Web had not yet even been invented. Who will feel the impact of this rise of China most directly? Obviously, the current number one. As China gets bigger and stronger and richer, technologically more advanced, it will inevitably bump up against American positions and prerogatives.
到2025年时，中国要成为10个先进科技领域，主要市场中的主导力量，这其中包括 无人驾驶汽车，机器人，人工智能和量子计算。到2035年时，中国要成为所有先进科技领域中最具创新力的领导者。并且到2049年，中华人民共和国，成立100周年之际，中国要成为无可争议的第一，其中包括，一支他称为“打得赢”的军队。这些都是大胆的目标，但是大家都知道，中国在朝着目标的路上，一路走得稳扎稳打。我们还需提醒自己这个世界的变化之快。 三十年前，万维网还没出现。有谁能直观地感受到中国崛起的影响力呢？ 答案显而易见的，便是当今的第一大国。随着中国变得愈发强大和富有，科技变得更加先进，中国将注定要对美国的地位和特权产生威胁。
Now, for red-blooded Americans -- and especially for red-necked Americans like me; I'm from North Carolina -- there's something wrong with this picture. The USA means number one, that's who we are. But again, to repeat: brute facts are hard to ignore. Four years ago, Senator John McCain asked me to testify about this to his Senate Armed Services Committee. And I made for them a chart that you can see, that said, compare the US and China to kids on opposite ends of a seesaw on a playground, each represented by the size of their economy. As late as 2004, China was just half our size. By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours. And on the current trajectory, by 2024, it will be half again larger. The consequences of this tectonic change will be felt everywhere.
对于那些热血沸腾的美国人来说——尤其是像我一样的美国乡巴佬--我来自北卡罗莱纳州，这张宏大的蓝图里有点不对劲。美国就是“第一”的代名词，这点毋庸置疑，但是还需再次强调：我们无法忽视残忍的事实。四年前，参议员约翰·麦凯恩想让我，向参议院军事委员会阐明这个事实。我便给他们绘制了一张表，如大家所见，在这个表中，我把中美对比：比喻成在操场上玩跷跷板的两个小孩子，尺寸大小由两国的经济规模决定。2004年时，中国的规模仅占美国的一半。到了2014年，中国的GDP值和美国一样了。照此形势发展，到2024年时中国的规模会变得比美国大一半。这个构造层面的改变结果体现在方方面面。
For example, in the current trade conflict, China is already the number one trading partner of all the major Asian countries. Which brings us back to our Greek historian. Harvard's "Thucydides's Trap Case File" has reviewed the last 500 years of history and found 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. Twelve of these ended in war. And the tragedy of this is that in very few of these did either of the protagonists want a war; few of these wars were initiated by either the rising power or the ruling power.
举个例子，在如今的贸易冲突中，中国已经成为了所有亚洲主要国家的，第一大贸易伙伴。 这个事实又把我们带回了修昔底德的理论。哈佛大学的“修昔底德案例文档”回顾了前500年里的历史，并发现16个档案里出现了，崛起力量威胁掌权力量的事件。这其中12个案例以战争结束。最为悲剧的是，很少有主角，想要发动战争；其中只有几场战争是由崛起力量，或掌权力量发起的。
So how does this work? What happens is, a third party's provocation forces one or the other to react, and that sets in motion a spiral, which drags the two somewhere they don't want to go. If that seems crazy, it is. But it's life. Remember World War I. The provocation in that case was the assassination of a second-level figure, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which then led the Austro-Hungarian emperor to issue an ultimatum to Serbia, they dragged in the various allies, within two months, all of Europe was at war.
事情是如何进展的？实际上，第三方势力的挑衅，造成了某一方势力的躁动，而这便形成了一个漩涡，把这两方势力拽进了未曾想到达的地步。这听起来有点疯狂，确实是这样的。但现实如此。回想一下 世界第一次大战。那场战争的导火索，便是矛头指向二级人物，弗朗茨·斐迪南大公的刺杀行动，这导致了奥匈帝国的皇帝，下达对塞尔维亚的最后通牒，随后形成了多方势力的盟军，两个月不到，全欧洲便陷入战争。
So imagine if Thucydides were watching planet Earth today. What would he say? Could he find a more appropriate leading man for the ruling power than Donald J Trump?
想象一下修昔底德观望如今的地球形势。他会发表什么看法？他会找到一个比特朗普更合适，掌权力量的领导者吗？
So finally, we conclude again with the most consequential question, the question that will have the gravest consequences for the rest of our lives: Are Americans and Chinese going to let the forces of history drive us to a war that would be catastrophic for both? Or can we summon the imagination and courage to find a way to survive together, to share the leadership in the 21st century, or, to create a new form of great power relations?
最后，我们再以最重要的问题总结，这个问题对我们的余生，都具有重大意义：美国人和中国人难道就打算让历史的车轮，载着他们驶向对任何人都没好处的灾难性战争吗？ 又或，我们能征服想象力和勇气，寻找一条共生之路，分享21世纪的领导权力，或者就如所说，创造一种新形式的权力联盟吗？
That's the issue I've been pursuing passionately for the last two years. I've had the opportunity to talk and, indeed, to listen to leaders of all the relevant governments -- Beijing, Washington, Seoul, Tokyo -- and to thought leaders across the spectrum of both the arts and business. I wish I had more to report. The good news is that leaders are increasingly aware of this Thucydidean dynamic and the dangers that it poses. The bad news is that nobody has a feasible plan for escaping history as usual.
这个话题是我近两年来，一直在热切思考的。我曾有机会去和所有相关政府--北京，华盛顿，首尔，东京--讨论与倾听，并从艺术和商业范围判断这些领导者。我不方便透露更多。好消息是，这些领导者对于修昔底德的理论，以及其可能造成的危险，开始逐渐重视起来。坏消息是，目前没有人制定出可行的方案，来逃出历史的怪圈。
So it's clear to me that we need some ideas outside the box of conventional statecraft -- indeed, from another page or another space -- which is what brings me to TED today and which brings me to a request. This audience includes many of the most creative minds on the planet, who get up in the morning and think not only about how to manage the world we have, but how to create worlds that should be. So I'm hopeful that as this sinks in and as you reflect on it, some of you are going to have some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas, that when we find, will make a difference in this space. And just to remind you if you do, this won't be the first time.
所以我很清楚我们需要，在常规之外寻找些想法--实际上，是从另一角度或者另一空间--这便成为了我今天来TED的缘由，也促使我发出请求。在座的观众中囊括了 这个星球上最富创造力的大脑，你们会早上起来时思索，不局限于关于如何管理这个世界的问题，也去思考该如何创造一个应有的世界。以我希望随着大家思考得越深入，在座的人里可能，会产生些些大胆的甚至疯狂的想法。而当这些想法被发现时，便会给这个世界带来些不同。提醒一下，如果你想尝试的话，这并不是历史上的首次尝试。
Let me remind you of what happened right after World War II. A remarkable group of Americans and Europeans and others, not just from government, but from the world of culture and business, engaged in a collective surge of imagination. And what they imagined and what they created was a new international order, the order that's allowed you and me to live our lives, all of our lives, without great power war and with more prosperity than was ever seen before on the planet. So, a remarkable story. Interestingly, every pillar of this project that produced these results, when first proposed, was rejected by the foreign policy establishment as naive or unrealistic.
我再来讲述一下第二次世界大战后发生的事吧。一个由美国人，欧洲人和其他地区的人 组成的杰出组织，其中不仅有拥有政府工作背景的成员，还有来自文化界和商界的成员。他们把自己投入进想象力集合工程。这些人所想象和创造的，是新的国际秩序，一个让你、我、所有人都拥有自己的生活，让大规模战争消失殆尽，并带来前所未有的繁荣的秩序。 这是一段很杰出的事迹。有趣的是，这个项目中的每一环，在最开始公布的时候，被对外政策体制以幼稚和不现实为由拒绝。
My favorite is the Marshall Plan. After World War II, Americans felt exhausted. They had demobilized 10 million troops, they were focused on an urgent domestic agenda. But as people began to appreciate how devastated Europe was and how aggressive Soviet communism was, Americans eventually decided to tax themselves a percent and a half of GDP every year for four years and send that money to Europe to help reconstruct these countries, including Germany and Italy, whose troops had just been killing Americans. Amazing. This also created the United Nations. Amazing. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The World Bank. NATO. All of these elements of an order for peace and prosperity. So, in a word, what we need to do is do it again. And I think now we need a surge of imagination, creativity, informed by history, for, as the philosopher Santayana reminded us, in the end, only those who refuse to study history are condemned to repeat it.
我最欣赏的是马歇尔计划。第二次世界大战结束后，美国已精疲力竭。它们遣散了一千万支军队，并把精力放在 紧急国内议程中。但当人们开始意识到欧洲是怎么满目疮痍 以及苏联共产主义如何强势时，美国人最后决定在四年内向人民征收占GDP 1.5%的税金，并把这些钱送至欧洲协助重建，包括德国和意大利，这些美国昔日的敌军。令人惊叹。 这件事也促使了联合国的建立。令人惊叹。世界人权宣言。世界银行。北大西洋公约组织。所有这些都是这个以和平繁荣为目的的秩序的产物。
总之，我们所需的是重新再做一遍。并且我认为现在我们需要想象力和创造力的迸发，前事不忘后事之师，因为哲学家桑塔耶拿告诫我们，最后，只有那些拒绝学习历史的人，会被迫重蹈历史的覆辙。
Thank you.
谢谢大家。
— THE END —
本文选自口译网。
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