未来至少两年内,直接的影响是微乎其微的,因为是否脱欧都还存在争议,而确定要脱欧后还有至少两年的谈判期,在此之前现有的劳工政策、法律、税务、等都不会有大的变化。
长远来看,对中国学生的影响可能会利大于弊。受脱欧影响最大的是低端劳工,在英国的中国人相对来说素质不低,如上面其他人分析,工作许可的总量会增加,能力强的中国人获得许可的可能性也会更大。
脱欧可能潜在地促进英国和中国的经贸关系,欧洲企业对中国市场的需求会更加强烈,而在相当长时间内,中国企业来欧洲投资的首选依然会是英国,语言、商业环境、融资、专业服务等方面英国的优势难以被取代。
归根到底,脱欧的影响需要靠时间和结果来证明,究竟是英国摆脱欧盟负担重新崛起,还是更加沉沦,我们拭目以待。
贴一段我的律师对雇员方面的分析(勿转,谢谢)
Leaving the EU does not by itself change our domestic employment law, either from today or from when we do actually leave, even if that law is based on an EU decision or Directive. That means no immediate changes to TUPE, the Human Rights Act, Works Councils, collective information and consultation rules, the Agency Worker Regulations, the Working Time Regulations or any of our EU-derived health and safety rules.
Your existing EEA national workers will not automatically have to leave the country or stop working for you, though they may choose to do so. They will still be able to get back into the UK if they go abroad on holiday or business.
You can still recruit EEA nationals without work visas for the time being, but if your business relies heavily on relatively unskilled labour from the EEA, start to consider whether it will be practicable to source such workers from within the UK market.
The UK may feel itself no longer obliged to implement into domestic law the forthcoming EU Trade Secrets Directive or General Data Protection Regulations, but will probably do so anyway to minimise the damage to inward investment from EU countries. Your existing UK workers based in Continental Europe will not have to come back home immediately. Longer-term (two years at least) their position will depend on what stance the EU adopts towards its own UK-facing immigration controls.
It will remain discriminatory to hire EU staff in place of UK nationals (or vice versa) on racial or needs-a-visa grounds.
Leaving the EU will potentially take the UK out of the area regarded by the rest of Europe as “safe” for the processing of employee data. Unless an English version of the former US Safe Harbor Agreement can be negotiated, you may ultimately expect difficulties using personal data concerning your EU employees in the UK, and so you should begin to consider adopting increased data protection safeguards in your arrangements with your EU data subjects and processors.
The vote will probably mean a weakening of Lock-type holiday pay claims, and of any other legal arguments or proposals which are based on EU law but not yet incorporated into domestic UK statute. Whether the UK Government feels it necessary to pass such statutes before the formal point of exit remains to be seen – our view is that this is unlikely.
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