利率期权

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财经再现   2018-6-1 22:51   15292   0
本文依然着眼于ACCA P4 Advanced Financial Management的应试,关于期权的基本概念,请先阅读[/url][url=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU2NzM1ODIyMA==&mid=2247483884&idx=1&sn=ad026cfc9df7b2ba1c010a8f7c149aa5&scene=21#wechat_redirect]《浅谈衍生品(二)期权》





  原理推导  

首先,要明确利率期权的标的资产是到日期相同的利率期货。比如,12月利率期权(无论call还是put),其标的资产是12月利率期货。清楚这一点之后,才能判断是否行权(后文详述)。

>> As for borrower
未来要借钱,要利率期货(不明白的,请阅读《利率期货》),即标的资产,所以今天买入put。此处有两层意思:1.未来事情现在做,未来要卖,现在锁定卖价(put的行权价格Pe是确定的);2. 买入期权,成为权利方(有收益,就行权;没有收益,就不行权)。

真正借钱的时候(交易日),现货市场正常做交易,按S[sub]T[/sub]借钱;期权要判断是否行权,即比较行权价格Peexercise price标的资产的价格Paprice of underlying assets,前面说过,标的资产是利率期货,所以Pa就是F[sub]T[/sub],而F[sub]T[/sub]的计算,跟利率期货是一样一样的(不清楚的,请阅读《期货(收官)》)。

如果Pe > F[sub]T[/sub],行权,gain = Pe-F[sub]T[/sub]
如果Pe < F[sub]T[/sub] ,不行权,nogain or loss

此外,别忘了期权是买来的,有期权费(premium成本,要加入最终的借款成本中(成本和费用方向相同,绝对值相加)。

>> As for lender
操作方向与borrower相反,今天买入call。同样是两层含义:1.未来事情现在做,未来要买,现在锁定买价;2. 买入期权,成为权利方。

真正投资的时候(交易日),现货市场正常做交易,按S[sub]T[/sub]投资;期权市场上,如果Pe < F[sub]T[/sub],行权,gain = F[sub]T[/sub]-Pe,如果Pe > F[sub]T[/sub],不行权,no gain or loss。

此处,期权费要从投资收益中扣除(收益和费用方向相反,绝对值相减)。



  真题演练  

Jun 2015 Q4(节选)
Daikon Co is expecting to borrow $34,000,000 in five months’ time. It expects to make a full repayment of the borrowed amount in 11 months’ time. Assume it is 1 June 2015 today. Daikon Co can borrow funds at LIBOR plus 70 basis points. LIBOR is currently 3·6%, but Daikon Co expects that interest rates may increase by asmuch as 80 basis points in five months’ time.
Optionson three-month $ futures, $1,000,000 contract. Option premiums are in annual %.
December
calls
Strike
price
December
puts
0·541
95·50
0·304
0·223
96·00
0·508

解析:第一段background的内容,在讲解利率期货的时候解释过,此处略过。第二段是期权合约的相关内容。合约规模($1,000,000)、合约期限(3 months)、到期日(December)和期货没有区别。和期货不一样的有两处:
1. Strike price(即 exercise price,行权价格),看样子和期货价格有点像,其实这是必然的,别忘了,之前说过,利率期权的标的资产就是利率期货,那行权价格不就是买卖标的资产的价格吗,两者在形式和口径上必然一致;
2. Premium的报价方式,是annual %(年化利率),比如,表中的0.541,表示12月、行权价格为95.50的看涨期权,期权费是年化0.541%,注意,年化是好事情,因为我们最后要算的借款利率和投资收益率,也都是年化的,因此,和期权费可以直接相加减。

1 Jun(今天)
Buy Decputoptions with strike price of 95.50 or 96.00, with premium of 0.304% and 0.508% respectively

1 Nov(交易日)
S[sub]T[/sub]= 3.6%+0.8% = 4.4%
Borrow in spot market @ 4.4%+0.7% =5.1%
F[sub]T[/sub](Pa) = 95.44(图示如下,详见《期货(收官)》









>> As for 95.50 (Pe) option
意味着,有权利按95.50Pe的价格,把值95.44Pa的东西卖掉,当然选择卖,即行权,因此,gain = (95.50-95.44)% = 0.06%,注意,计算思路和gain or loss on futures完全一样。
Final borrowing cost = 5.1%-0.06%+0.304%= 5.344%,注意,借款成本(4.4%)和gain on option(0.06%)方向相反,绝对值相减;借款成本(4.4%)和期权费(0.304%)方向相同,绝对值相加,下同。

>> As for 96.00 (Pe) option
意味着,有权利按96.00Pe的价格,把值95.44Pa的东西卖掉,当然选择卖,即行权,因此,gain = (96.00-95.44)% = 0.56%。Final borrowing cost = 5.1%-0.56%+0.504% = 5.044%

Dec 2017 Q4(节选)
Assume it is now 1 October 2017 …… The subsidiary expects to receive D27,000,000 on 31January 2018. It wants this money to be invested locally in Euria, most probably for five months until 30 June 2018 …… The central bank base rate in Euria is currently 4·2% and the treasury team believes that it can invest funds in Euria at the central bank base rate less 30 basis points. However, treasury staff have seen predictions that the central bank base rate could increase by up to 1·1% or fall by up to 0·6% between now and 31 January 2018.
Options on three-month D futures, D500,000 contract size, option premiums are in annual %
Call
Strike
price
Put
Dec
Mar
Jun
Dec
Mar
Jun
0.417
0.545
0.678
94.25
0.071
0.094
0.155
0.078
0.098
0.160
95.25
0.393
0.529
0.664

解析:第一段background的内容,在讲解利率期货的时候解释过,此处略过。第二段是期权的相关信息,和Jun 2015 Q4相比,需要选择到期日(Mar),且反向操作(本题是投资),其他没有实质区别。

1 Oct(今天)
Buy Marcalloptions with strike price of 94.25 or 95.25, with premium of 0.545% and 0.098% respectively

31 Jan(交易日)
If interest increase by 1.1%
S[sub]T[/sub]= 4.2%+1.1% = 5.3%
Invest in spot market @ 5.3%-0.3% =5.0%
F[sub]T[/sub] (Pa) = 94.36(图示如下,详见《期货(收官)》





>> As for 94.25 (Pe) option
意味着,有权利按94.25Pe的价格,买值94.36Pa的东西,当然选择买,即行权,因此,gain = (94.36-94.25)% = 0.11%。Final investment return = 5.0%+0.11%-0.545% = 4.565%,注意,投资收益(5.0%)和gain on option(0.11%)方向相同,绝对值相加;投资收益(5.0%)和期权费(0.545%)方向相反,绝对值相减,下同。

>> As for 95.25 (Pe) option
意味着,有权利按95.25Pe的价格,买值94.36Pa的东西,当然不买,即不行权,因此,Final investment return = 5.0%-0.098% = 4.902%

If interest decrease by 0.6%
S[sub]T[/sub]= 4.2%-0.6% = 3.6%
Invest in spot market @ 3.6%-0.3% =3.3%
F[sub]T[/sub] (Pa) = 96.06(图示如上,详见《期货(收官)》

>> As for 94.25 (Pe) option
意味着,有权利按94.25Pe的价格,买值96.06Pa的东西,当然选择买,即行权,因此,gain = (96.06-94.25)% = 1.81%。Final investment return = 3.3%+1.81%-0.545% = 4.565%

>> As for 95.25 (Pe) option
意味着,有权利按95.25Pe的价格,买值96.06Pa的东西,当然选择买,即行权,因此,gain = (96.06-95.25)% = 0.81%。Final investment return = 3.3%+0.81%-0.098% = 4.012%

答案有点凌乱,我们总结如下:
If interest increase by 1.1%
If interest decrease by 0.6%
94.25 option
4.565%
4.565%
95.25 option
4.902%
4.012%

我们从两个维度看:

1. 买94.25的期权还是95.25的期权?这是adviceon hedging strategy的问题。从数据来看,94.25的结果比较稳定,基本上锁定收益(都是4.565%,因为利率上升和下降的情况下都行权),属于保守策略;95.25是激进策略,要么很好(4.902%),要么很差(4.012%)。具体选择可以说 further consider the company’s attitude to risk。

2. 利率上升(现实状况对公司有利)和利率下降(现实状况对公司不利)的比较,此处以95.25 option为例(比较典型)。现实状况有利时,期权肯定输,但可以选择不行权,因此,能尽情享受该有利状况;现实状况不利时,期权肯定赚,选择行权,稍作弥补。这是期权区别于远期、期货的最大特征,这是一种选择权(详见《浅谈衍生品(二)期权》)。
这就像保险,出事了,现实状况不利,索赔(相当于行权),稍作弥补;没出事,现实状况有利,不索赔(即不行权),尽享幸福安康。我问你,你是想行权呢,还是不想行权呢?肯定是不想行权啦。那为啥还要交保费呢?图个安心呗,万一出事了呢?所以,保费就是期权费,英文用的是同一个单词premium!

由此,我们得出期权的重要特征,可以尽情享受现实的有利状况,用英文说是can enjoy the unlimited upside benefits,这是好处;为此付出的代价是高昂的期权费成本,这是坏处。好处和坏处都挺极端的,人们在想,能不能折中一些呢?可以的,从逻辑上说,应该是放弃一点“尽情享受”,捞回一点期权费。具体怎么操作,我们下次再说。



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