China’s financial opening speeds up, but politics could spoil the party
中国金融业正在加速对外开放，但政治问题可能会扰乱这场盛宴
Foreign financiers look past the trade war and ramp up in China
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As China was preparing to join the World Trade Organisation in 2001, the phrase “the wolves are coming” kept cropping up in state media. The country was about to open up to foreign banks and the fear was that Wall Street’s finest would devour their Chinese rivals. But regulators managed to defang the wolves, never giving them a chance. Today, foreign firms account for less than 2% of assets in China’s banking sector.
2001年，当中国准备加入世界贸易组织的时候，“狼来了”这句话不断出现在官媒的报道中。当时，中国即将向外国银行敞开大门，人们担心华尔街的精英们会摧毁他们的中国竞争对手。但监管机构设法阻挡了狼群，未曾给他们机会。如今，外国公司占中国银行业资产的比例不到2％。
It is instructive to keep this in mind as China again talks of opening its financial system. On July 2nd the prime minister, Li Keqiang, said that foreign investors would be allowed to take full ownership of investment banks and insurers in China from 2020, a year earlier than previously promised. Over the past two decades they have been limited to minority shares, and only last year were they permitted 51% stakes.
牢记当年发生的这一切，对理解今天中国再次谈及开放其金融体系有很大的帮助。7月2日，总理李克强表示，从2020年开始，外国投资者将被允许拥有中国的投资银行和保险公司的所有权，这比之前承诺的要早一年。在过去的二十年里，外国投资者仅能拥有少数股份，直至去年政府才允许他们持有51％的股份。
For foreign financiers the initial reaction is naturally one of scepticism. China still has plenty of ways to slow them down. One investment banker says that rather than rejecting his firm’s application for a majority stake, which might have sparked criticism, regulators simply refused to acknowledge receipt.
对于外国金融家来说，一开始的反应自然是怀疑。中国政府仍有很多方法可以放慢他们的速度。一位投资银行家表示，监管机构并没有直接拒绝他的公司对多数股权的申请，因为这可能会招致批评。监管机构只是否认收到了该申请。
Nevertheless, there are grounds for cautious optimism. For starters China is under closer scrutiny than in the past. Its rule changes are partly a response to the trade war with America. The government wants to win more support from foreign businesses, which it hopes can rein in America’s tariff-loving president, Donald Trump.
然而，人们还是有理由保持谨慎乐观的。首先，中国受到了比过去更多的外部关注。它的规则改变部分是因为与美国的贸易战。政府想获得更多的外企支持，希望借此能遏制热衷于施加关税的美国总统特朗普。
Internationally minded officials also crave more competition in the financial system for China’s own good. As growth slows, they want to improve productivity, which requires better allocation of capital. The government’s recent takeover of Baoshang Bank, an insolvent regional lender, was a reminder of the deep rot in certain corners of the economy.
为了中国自身的利益，具有国际视野的官员也渴望金融体系内有更多的竞争。随着增速放缓，他们希望提高生产效率，这需要更好的资本配置。政府最近接管了一家破产的地区银行——宝山银行，这提醒人们，中国经济的某些角落存在着严重的问题。
The long-stymied foreign banks are still minnows compared with China’s state-owned giants, but their assets in the country have increased by 40% in the past two years to almost $650bn, a third more than the total in Japan. The investment-banking industry is also starting to be reshaped. hsbc, JPMorgan Chase, Nomura and ubs are all now either operating or setting up majority-controlled investment banks. “The opening appears to us to be more substantial than before,” says Eugene Qian, the head of ubs’s China business. “We have more skin in the game.”
与中国国有银行巨头相比，长期被各种政策所限制的外资银行在中国市场上的份额仍微不足道，但在过去两年中，外资银行在中国的资产增加了40％，达到近6500亿美元，比外资银行在日本的资产总额高出三分之一。投资银行业也开始洗牌。汇丰银行，摩根大通，野村和瑞银现在都在运营或设立多数控股的投资银行。瑞银中国业务负责人尤金·钱（Eugene Qian）表示，“对我们来说，这次开放比以往更具实质性。我们有更多的机会参与其中了。”
Fund managers are also being drawn into China, often following overseas clients as they invest more money in its markets. According to the Institute of International Finance, a global industry association, since the start of 2018 non-residents have put $75bn into Chinese stocks, while withdrawing $8bn from other big emerging markets. Foreign ownership of Chinese bonds has more than doubled, to $265bn, over the past two years, and analysts expect it to grow roughly five-fold over the coming decade.
海外的基金经理们也被吸引到中国，这往往是因为他们所追随的客户在中国市场上投入了更多资金。根据一个全球行业协会——国际金融研究所的统计，自2018年初以来，非中国居民已向中国股票市场投入750亿美元，同时从其他的大型新兴市场撤出80亿美元。在过去两年中，外资持有的中国债券增加了一倍以上，达到2650亿美元，分析师预计未来十年这个数字将增长约五倍。
One obvious cause for these inflows is index inclusion. Last year China’s a-shares (yuan-denominated shares in the mainland) entered the msci emerging-markets index, a popular benchmark. This year Chinese bonds entered their first major index, the Bloomberg Barclays gauge. Taken together, these inclusions compel investors who track indices to allocate billions of dollars to China, even if some are wary of it.
这些资金流入的一个显著原因是中国市场的表现陆续纳入了国际市场指数。去年，中国的A股（在大陆以人民币计价的股票）进入了MSCI新兴市场指数，这是一个受欢迎的基准指数。今年，中国债券被纳入它们的第一个主要指数——彭博巴克莱全球综合指数。总而言之，纳入其中趋使着追踪指数的投资者向中国配置数十亿美元，即使有些人对此持谨慎态度。
But China is also working harder to attract them. Until recently the only feasible way into its stock and bond markets was through special quotas assigned to large institutions. Now all investors need is a brokerage account in Hong Kong. “Among the emerging markets China does not stand out as being particularly difficult,” says Nicholas Borst of Seafarer Capital Partners, a fund manager in San Francisco.
但中国也在努力吸引他们。直到前不久，进入中国股票和债券市场的唯一可行方式是通过分配给大型机构的特殊配额。现在投资者都只需要一个香港的经纪账户就可以了。“在新兴市场中，中国市场并不算很难进入的，” 专注于新兴市场的投资顾问公司Seafarer Capital Partners的尼古拉斯博斯特说，他是洛杉矶的一个基金经理。
Still, firms trying to establish themselves in China face a long road. Sectors that require lots of capital and a large physical presence will be tough to crack. No foreign firm can fight for mass-market business in banking when Agricultural Bank of China has more than 20,000 branches, or in insurance when China Life has 1.7m salespeople. But there are lucrative niches such as serving wealthy clients or handling cross-border deals.
尽管如此，外资金融机构想要在中国立足，仍然有很长的路要走。金融类中那些需要大量资金和大量实体存在的行业是很难从外部突破的。中国农业银行拥有2万多个分支机构，中国人寿拥有170万销售人员，没有外国公司可以在大众金融市场上和这些企业竞争。但是还是存在有利可图的特定市场，比如为富有的客户提供服务或处理跨境交易。
Fund managers and investment banks stand more chance because success is determined less by size than by expertise, says Victor Wang of China International Capital Corp, a big domestic brokerage. When it comes to structuring derivatives or offering research, foreigners have more experience. Yet they will also run up against local rivals with bigger names and more clients. “There is no magic way to become competitive in this market,” Mr Wang says.
中国国际金融有限公司的Victor Wang表示，外资基金经理和投资银行的机会更大，因为在这些领域，成功更依赖于专业知识而不是规模。在构建衍生品或提供研究方面，外国人有更多的经验。然而，他们还是会遇到拥有更大名气和更多客户的本地竞争者。“在这个市场中没有神奇的办法能提高竞争力。”王先生说。
Meanwhile the trade war looms over all. Some hawks in America want to sever financial ties with China. Marco Rubio, a Republican senator, has challenged msci over its inclusion of Chinese shares, accusing it of helping authoritarians. A headhunter in Hong Kong reports that American fund managers slowed their hiring after trade talks between China and America broke down in May. With talks set to resume, they can breathe a sigh of relief—for now. The worry is that, just as China clears away some of the obstacles in their path, America will replace them with new ones.
与此同时，贸易战的阴影笼罩在所有人头上。美国的一些鹰派希望切断与中国的金融联系。共和党参议员马克卢比奥（Marco Rubio）对MSCI纳入中国股票提出质疑，指责它帮助威权主义者。香港一位猎头报道称，5月中美贸易谈判破裂后，美国基金经理放慢了招聘速度。随着谈判的恢复，他们可以暂时松一口气了。令人担心的是，在中国清除其前行路上的一些绊脚石时，美国会代之以新的阻碍。
翻译：张丹，原载《经济学人》
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